: Eliezer and I publicly stated some predictions about AI performance on the IMO by 2025.... My final prediction (after significantly revising my guesses after looking up IMO questions and medal thresholds) was:

Eliezer spent less time revising his prediction, but said (earlier in the discussion):

So I think we have Paul at <8%, Eliezer at >16% for AI made before the IMO is able to get a gold (under time controls 

 of grand challenge) in one of 2022-2025.

Resolves to YES if either Eliezer or Paul acknowledge that an AI has succeeded at this task.

https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-a-machine-learning-model-score-f0d93ee0119b

Update: As noted by Paul, the qualifying years for IMO completion are 2023, 2024, and 2025.

Update 2024-06-21: Description formatting

Update 2024-07-25: Changed title from "by 2025" to "by the end of 2025" for clarity

OpenAI's original definition for AGI is as follows:

Here is a diagram illustrating the governance structure of OpenAI:

The following is a quote from the original post by OpenAI, 

An action that would "hint at" OpenAI achieving AGI would be the exclusion of a specific state of the art AI system from IP licenses and other commercial terms with Microsoft while their partnership with Microsoft remains more or less the same structurally (although the composition might change). 

Same market for a longer time-frame is below:

I will resolve this based on some combination of how much it gets talked about in elections, how much money goes to interest groups on both topics, and how much of the "political conversation" seems to be about either.

EG "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

Resolves to the company with the #1 model with the highest ELO rating at the end of 2025 (Dec 31st 11:59 pst) on 

If one of the companies/models is acquired before the end of the year it will resolve to the original company associated with that model.

This is Kevin's low-confidence prediction from the 1/3/25 episode of the "Hard Fork" podcast.

Market will resolve to yes if OpenAI (or a top OpenAI executive, such as Sam Altman or Greg Brockman) claims to have achieved artificial general intelligence (AGI) in 2025. Otherwise, it will resolve to no.

If a large language models beats a super grandmaster (Classic elo of above 2,700) while playing blind chess by 2028, this market resolves to YES.

I will ignore fun games, at my discretion. (Say a game where Hiraku loses to ChatGPT because he played the Bongcloud)

Some clarification (28th Mar 2023): This market grew fast with a unclear description. My idea is to check whether a general intelligence can play chess, without being created specifically for doing so (like humans aren't chess playing machines). Some previous comments I did.

1- To decide whether a given program is a LLM, I'll rely in the media and the nomenclature the creators give to it. If they choose to call it a LLM or some term that is related, I'll consider. Alternatively, a model that markets itself as a chess engine (or is called as such by the mainstream media) is unlikely to be qualified as a large language model.

2- The model can write as much as it want to reason about the best move. But it can't have external help beyond what is already in the weights of the model. For example, it can't access a chess engine or a chess game database. 

I won't bet on this market and I will refund anyone who feels betrayed by this new description and had open bets by 28th Mar 2023. This market will require judgement.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Associated_Press_NFL_Most_Valuable_Player_Award

If TikTok is divested from its China, and TikTok or its assets are transferred to a U.S. company, "divest it" resolves YES.

OR, if ByteDance disallows U.S. users from accessing TikTok, or otherwise exits the U.S. market, "shut it down" resolves YES.

Alternatively, if the bill is overturned and TikTok is allowed to operate in a structure substantially similar to its current structure, this question resolves N/A and all traders get their mana back.

Fine print: The law gives TikTok up to a year to be divested. If this timeline is extended due to legal challenges, the question won't resolve until ByteDance makes (or is forced to make) its final decision. For example, if ByteDance disallows U.S. users from accessing TikTok but they have credible ongoing legal proceedings to overturn the law, this question will stay open until the legal disputes are resolved and TikTok finalizes its decision.

Game Winning Drive starting in the last 2 Minutes

AFC or NFC Offensive Player of the Week is a Running Back

A Starting QB gets a likely Season Ending Injury

Player Records at least 2 Interceptions in a Game

Quarterback throws at least 4 Touchdowns in a game

Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game

Josh Allen MVP Odds Improve By 1/8/25 (Currently: -300)

For each letter of the alphabet, at least one touchdown is scored by a player that has that letter in their first or last name

Score as time expires in the 4th Quarter/OT

Any team scores 24+ points before halftime

Any player throws for more than 350 yards and loses

A QB has at least 2 turnovers and at least 4 TDs (including passing)

A QB has at least 3 turnovers and at least 3 TDs (including passing)

Highest Scoring Game of the Season (so far)* https://tinyurl.com/highestgame

 A lateral more than a yard past the line of scrimmage (non-last play of the game)

Bird teams finish with a better record than Cat teams (Win %)

Any 400 yard passer (https://tinyurl.com/400Yarder)

At least one missed kicking extra point attempt

A prime number of total missed field goals + extra points

Team change in top 6 super bowl favorites by 1/8 (Chiefs, Lions, Bills, Ravens, Eagles, Vikings))*

2 Point Conversions convert at 50% or higher for the Week

Will a championship belt change teams (https://shorturl.at/2bXlq) (https://shorturl.at/XwDBj)

Will either end of regular season championship belt holder not make the playoffs (https://shorturl.at/2bXlq) (https://shorturl.at/XwDBj)

LA teams finish with a better record than NY teams

A 1pm EST game is still going when a 4:25pm EST game starts

Any player scores 3 TDs in a game (non-passing)

For each game, take the GCD of both teams' scores. Is the result for any game at least 8?

Hip Drop Tackle penalty called during any game

4th and Goal from the 1 (or inches) stopped

Team loses a game where a win would have put them in the playoffs

3 Missed FGs or Extra Points (from both teams combined) in a Game

At least 2 teams rest their starting QBs for their playoffs (1 or less quarter played)

The player with the most passing yards wears a prime number

LA teams finish with a better record than teams from New York (state)

Add your own props related to Week Eighteen (if it is super specific be prepared to help me find an answer). Answers should be able to be resolved by about a Week after Week Eighteen finishes, but not later than that.

This resolves Yes to the team that is declared the winner of the 2024-2025 NBA Championship.

The Kansas City Chiefs won the past 2 Super Bowls. Will they play in the Super Bowl again in 2025?

Buffalo Sabres beat New Jersey Devils 12pm Oct 4

New Jersey Devils beat Buffalo Sabres 9am Oct 5

Seattle Kraken beat St. Louis Blues 3:30pm Oct 8

Florida Panthers beat Boston Bruins 6pm Oct 8

Utah Hockey Club beat Chicago Blackhawks 9pm Oct 8

Montreal Canadiens beat Toronto Maple Leafs 6pm Oct 9

Pittsburgh Penguins beat New York Rangers 6:30pm Oct 9

Edmonton Oilers beat Winnipeg Jets 9pm Oct 9

Vancouver Canucks beat Calgary Flames 9pm Oct 9

Vegas Golden beat Knights Colorado Avalanche 9pm Oct 9

Boston Bruins beat Montreal Canadiens 6pm Oct 10

Buffalo Sabres beat Los Angeles Kings 6pm Oct 10

New Jersey Devils beat Toronto Maple Leafs 6pm Oct 10

Ottawa Senators beat Florida Panthers 6pm Oct 10

New York Islanders beat Utah Hockey Club 6:30pm Oct 10

Detroit Red Wings beat Pittsburgh Penguins 7pm Oct 10

Minnesota Wild beat Columbus Blue Jackets 7pm Oct 10

Nashville Predators beat Dallas Stars 7pm Oct 10

San Jose Sharks beat St. Louis Blues 9:30pm Oct 10

Carolina Hurricanes beat Tampa Bay Lightning 6pm Oct 11

Winnipeg Jets beat Chicago Blackhawks 7pm Oct 11

Vancouver Canucks beat Philadelphia Flyers 9pm Oct 11

Vegas Golden Knights beat St. Louis Blues 9pm Oct 11

Boston Bruins beat Los Angeles Kings 12pm Oct 12

Buffalo Sabres beat Florida Panthers 6pm Oct 12

Detroit Red Wings beat Nashville Predators 6pm Oct 12

Montreal Canadiens beat Ottawa Senators 6pm Oct 12

New York Rangers beat Utah Hockey Club 6pm Oct 12

Tampa Bay Lightning beat Carolina Hurricanes 6pm Oct 12

Toronto Maple Leafs beat Pittsburgh Penguins 6pm Oct 12

Washington Capitals beat New Jersey Devils 6pm Oct 12

Dallas Stars beat New York Islanders 7pm Oct 12

Minnesota Wild beat Seattle Kraken 7pm Oct 12

Colorado Avalanche beat Columbus Blue Jackets 8pm Oct 12

Calgary Flames beat Philadelphia Flyers 9pm Oct 12

Edmonton Oilers beat Chicago Blackhawks 9pm Oct 12

San Jose Sharks beat Anaheim Ducks 9pm Oct 12

Winnipeg Jets beat Minnesota Wild 5pm Oct 13

Dallas Stars beat Seattle Kraken 7pm Oct 13

Edmonton Oilers beat Calgary Flames 7pm Oct 13

Vegas Golden Knights beat Anaheim Ducks 9pm Oct 13

Boston Bruins beat Florida Panthers 12pm Oct 14

New Jersey Devils beat Utah Hockey Club 12pm Oct 14

Ottawa Senators beat Los Angeles Kings 12pm Oct 14

New York Rangers beat Detroit Red Wings 6pm Oct 14

Montreal Canadiens beat Pittsburgh Penguins 6:30pm Oct 14

Colorado Avalanche beat New York Islanders 8pm Oct 14

Carolina Hurricanes beat New Jersey Devils 6pm Oct 15

Columbus Blue Jackets beat Florida Panthers 6pm Oct 15

Tampa Bay Lightning beat Vancouver Canucks 6pm Oct 15

Washington Capitals beat Vegas Golden Knights 6pm Oct 15

St. Louis Blues beat Minnesota Wild 6:30pm Oct 15

Dallas Stars beat San Jose Sharks 7pm Oct 15

Nashville Predators beat Seattle Kraken 7pm Oct 15

Calgary Flames beat Chicago Blackhawks 8pm Oct 15

Edmonton Oilers beat Philadelphia Flyers 9pm Oct 15

Pittsburgh Penguins beat Buffalo Sabres 6pm Oct 16

Toronto Maple Leafs beat Los Angeles Kings 6:30pm Oct 16

Colorado Avalanche beat Boston Bruins 8:30pm Oct 16

Anaheim Ducks beat Utah Hockey Club 9pm Oct 16

Columbus Blue Jackets beat Buffalo Sabres 6pm Oct 17

Florida Panthers beat Vancouver Canucks 6pm Oct 17

Montreal Canadiens beat Los Angeles Kings 6pm Oct 17

Ottawa Senators beat New Jersey Devils 6pm Oct 17

Tampa Bay Lightning beat Vegas Golden Knights 6pm Oct 17

Washington Capitals beat Dallas Stars 6pm Oct 17

Detroit Red Wings beat New York Rangers 6:30pm Oct 17

Nashville Predators beat Edmonton Oilers 7pm Oct 17

St. Louis Blues beat New York Islanders 7pm Oct 17

Chicago Blackhawks beat San Jose Sharks 7:30pm Oct 17

Seattle Kraken beat Philadelphia Flyers 9pm Oct 17

Pittsburgh Penguins beat Carolina Hurricanes 6pm Oct 18

Winnipeg Jets beat San Jose Sharks 7pm Oct 18

Colorado Avalanche beat Anaheim Ducks 8pm Oct 18

Ottawa Senators beat Tampa Bay Lightning 12pm Oct 19

Nashville Predators beat Detroit Red Wings 1pm Oct 19

Dallas Stars beat Edmonton Oilers 3pm Oct 19

Florida Panthers beat Vegas Golden Knights 5pm Oct 19

Columbus Blue Jackets beat Minnesota Wild 6pm Oct 19

New Jersey Devils beat Washington Capitals 6pm Oct 19

New York Islanders beat Montreal Canadiens 6pm Oct 19

Philadelphia Flyers beat Vancouver Canucks 6pm Oct 19

St. Louis Blues beat Carolina Hurricanes 6pm Oct 19

Toronto Maple Leafs beat New York Rangers 6pm Oct 19

Chicago Blackhawks beat Buffalo Sabres 7pm Oct 19

Utah Hockey Club beat Boston Bruins 8pm Oct 19

Seattle Kraken beat Calgary Flames 9pm Oct 19

Winnipeg Jets beat Pittsburgh Penguins 2pm Oct 20

Anaheim Ducks beat Los Angeles Kings 7pm Oct 20

San Jose Sharks beat Colorado Avalanche 7pm Oct 20

Toronto Maple Leafs beat Tampa Bay Lightning 6:30pm Oct 21

Philadelphia Flyers beat Washington Capitals 5pm Oct 22

Florida Panthers beat Minnesota Wild 5:30pm Oct 22

New Jersey Devils beat Tampa Bay Lightning 5:45pm Oct 22

Buffalo Sabres beat Dallas Stars 6pm Oct 22

Montreal Canadiens beat New York Rangers 6:15pm Oct 22

Columbus Blue Jackets beat Toronto Maple Leafs 6:30pm Oct 22

New York Islanders beat Detroit Red Wings 6:45pm Oct 22

St. Louis Blues beat Winnipeg Jets 7pm Oct 22

Chicago Blackhawks beat Vancouver Canucks 7:15pm Oct 22

Note the resolution criteria—what matters is the change in the count of federal employees, not whether we can confirm Trump and/or Elon directly fired them. For reference, the specific chart Kalshi links to appears to be 

Usable by the public and owned by ByteDance

Usable by the public and not owned by ByteDance

Restricted in the US and owned by ByteDance

This market takes into consideration the status of TikTok on April 1st, 00:00 PST. So any upcoming bans/acquisitions will not matter if they aren't legally finalised and already in place.

" if the vast majority of the public can still legally download TikTok from major app stores in the US and visit 

Usable by the public and not owned by ByteDance" 

if the above criteria are true, however majority ownership is held by a company that is not ByteDance Ltd. This could include a new company formed with ties to ByteDance.

" if the vast majority of the public can not legally download TikTok from major app stores in the US, can not watch content on their TikTok app, and can not access 

" if meaningful restrictions have been put into place but some US residents can still legally access some TikTok content. Note that any existing restrictions, such as those on government employees, will not be taken into account. This could include, but is not limited to:

" if TikTok no longer exists as its own app and has been acquired or merged with another company's platform. Note that this is similar to "Usable by the public and owned by ByteDance

however, the distinct difference is that for this option TikTok should no longer exist as its own app/website in the US (an archive version of some sort would not count). 

: If it is first banned, and then in response they integrated by April 1st then it will resolve to this answer and not completely banned.

This market will resolve to YES if Nintendo's next generation system is revealed by Nintendo before January 31st, 2025 at 11:59PM PST.

A reveal will be defined as a major announcement that shows official imagery or render of the new system and an official name. Anything remotely resembling 

 would qualify, but something such as a social media posting showing a visual of the system and its name would resolve to YES as well.

There are other markets covering this, but this market serves the purpose of a higher liquidity YES/NO.

resolves YES if the deadline for Bytedance to divest from the US entity TikTok is extended past January 19th 2025

This market will settle as YES if at least three individuals that Trump nominates for cabinet positions that must be confirmed by the Senate are either withdrawn or voted down in the Senate. Cabinet officials refers to the 15 heads of government agencies, along with cabinet-level officials, which for the purposes of this market includes the Administrator of the EPA, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP. 

A nomination occurs as soon as President Trump announces an intention to nominate someone. No other step is necessary to be taken. No official step must be taken to withdraw a nominee either. Credible reporting that the administration will not longer be pursuing the nomination is enough. 

This market will settle as NO as soon as all the relevant positions are confirmed, or if the conditions of YES have not been met by March 31, 2025.  

The nominees that fail need not be all nominated for different positions. If, for example, Trump has three Attorney General nominees that fail, this market will resolve as YES. 

If Donald Trump does not become president or stops being president, this market resolves according to what happens to the nominees of whoever happens to be president during the relevant time period. The nominees of two or more people serving as president will be counted together. If, for example, Trump appoints an AG who is withdrawn and then Vance becomes president and two of his nominees are withdrawn, this market will settle as YES. 

Resolves YES if all living presidents (on January 20th, 2025) attend Donald Trump’s inauguration.

Must be in person (presumably at the Capitol).

(For the sweepstakes market if Trump's inauguration never happens then this will resolve to No.)

Ban transgender women from participating in women sports

End birthright citizenship for children of illegal immigrants through executive action

Terminate federal funding for gender affirming care

Try to get back the $175M bail he posted in April 2024

Pardon himself (even if this is later overturned by a court)

Pardon at least 5 named people (not as part of a group)

Ban transgender people from joining the military