Resolution is based on the chatbot arena LLM leaderboard (

), specifically the company with the highest Arena Score in the Overall category without filters (without style control or show deprecated), at the end of April 30, 2025 11:59PM ET.

On a recent (April 2024) episode of Bloomberg ODD LOTS podcast, guest Josh Wolfe tells us that j

ust as ChatGPT opened everyone's eyes to the power of chatbots, a similar moment is coming in the robotics space

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-22/josh-wolfe-the-chatgpt-of-robotics-is-coming?srnd=oddlots

https://youtu.be/qi8F3elM-3U?si=vG4sStOGD8qd7IoS

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Preferred method for resolution will be based on judgement by any of the participants in this discussion (Josh Wolfe, Tracy Alloway or Joe Weisenthal)

This market resolves to "YES" if any of the three publicly assert that we have crossed the equivalent of a "ChatGPT moment" threshold for Robotics.

I'll resolve based on whether there have been advances that capture these main elements of what Josh is predicting

"OpenAI product" includes ChatGPT website, application, a search-focused model or website run by OpenAI.

The definition of "most businesses" geographically excludes China, Russia, and Africa.

Yes includes cases if they launch a platform like 

 or if they sell via a third-party platform (like DuckDuckGo sells via Microsoft Advertising).

Limited availability (e.g. invitation-only opportunities for advertising) would resolve to no.

Will an AI score well enough on the 2025 International Mathematics Olympiad (IMO) to earn a gold medal score (top ~50 human performance)? Resolves YES if this result is reported no later than 1 month after IMO 2025 (currently scheduled for July 10-20). The AI must complete this task under the same time limits as human competitors. The AI may receive and output either informal or formal problems and proofs. More details below. Otherwise NO.

https://x.com/spencerkschiff/status/1910106368205336769?s=46&t=62uT9IruD1-YP-SHFkVEPg

(Note: the main difference with that market is that the models I accept do not need to be free to use, but can cost reasonable amounts of money, typical of current frontier models on the API.)

Resolves YES if a mainstream AI model (Currently, only Google, OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, DeepSeek and Meta count, but if some other lab becomes similarly mainstream they will count as well) can repeatedly solve this benchmark, using this image and other similar ones I draw.  I will be the judge of this.

“Solving the benchmark” means being able to match the names to the colors of the stick figures, repeatedly and with simple prompts.

I will pay for api credits if needed (limit: ~$20 per model). I will prompt each AI model a few times (6) and see if it succeeds at least 4 times out of 6, but I won't be running the same model multiple times and use some kind of cons@32 technique to aggregate multiple attempts.

The image for reference in case the tweet is deleted:

I will not bet in this market to remain objective.

: Eliezer and I publicly stated some predictions about AI performance on the IMO by 2025.... My final prediction (after significantly revising my guesses after looking up IMO questions and medal thresholds) was:

Eliezer spent less time revising his prediction, but said (earlier in the discussion):

So I think we have Paul at <8%, Eliezer at >16% for AI made before the IMO is able to get a gold (under time controls 

 of grand challenge) in one of 2022-2025.

Resolves to YES if either Eliezer or Paul acknowledge that an AI has succeeded at this task.

https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-a-machine-learning-model-score-f0d93ee0119b

Update: As noted by Paul, the qualifying years for IMO completion are 2023, 2024, and 2025.

Update 2024-06-21: Description formatting

Update 2024-07-25: Changed title from "by 2025" to "by the end of 2025" for clarity

General consensus it’s a stronger model than Gemini 2.5 Pro

Significantly better at creative writing than o1

Top collegiate quiz bowl national championship, taking place at the University of Maryland on April 20th-21st, 2025.

List of attending teams and rankings/stats at qualifier tournaments: 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1J0g4ZwUZQWDq8Gco45j-y6GExWjLtd0MoyZjmoAKNWg/edit?usp=sharing

https://hsquizbowl.org/db/tournaments/8934/stats/combined/

https://hsquizbowl.org/forums/viewtopic.php?p=402017

Thursday 3/27, 3:00 PM:  MIL Brewers (YES) vs NY Yankees (NO)

Thursday 3/27 3:07 PM: BAL Orioles (YES) vs TOR Blue Jays (NO)

Thursday 3/27 4:05 PM: PHI Phillies (YES) vs WSH Nationals (NO)

Thursday 3/27 4:05 PM: BOS Red Sox (YES) vs TEX Rangers (NO)

Thursday 3/27 4:10 PM: PIT Pirates (YES) vs MIA Marlins (NO)

Thursday 3/27 4:10 PM: SF Giants (YES) vs CIN Reds (NO)

Thursday 3/27 4:10 PM: LA Angels (YES) vs CHI White Sox (NO)

Thursday 3/27 4:10 PM: CLE Guardians (YES) vs KC Royals (NO)

Thursday 3/27 4:10 PM: NY Mets (YES) vs HOU Astros (NO)

Thursday 3/27 4:10 PM: ATL Braves (YES) vs SD Padres (NO)

Thursday 3/27 4:15 PM: MIN Twins (YES) vs STL Cardinals (NO)

Thursday 3/27 7:00 PM: DET Tigers (YES) vs LA Dodgers (NO)

Thursday 3/27 10:10 PM: CHI Cubs (YES) vs ARZ Diamondbacks (NO)

Thursday 3/27 10:10 PM: Athletics (YES) vs SEA Mariners (NO)

Friday 3/28, 4:10 PM: COL Rockies (YES) vs TB Rays (NO) 

Friday 3/28, 7:07 PM: (BAL) Orioles (YES) vs TOR Blue Jays (NO)

Friday 3/28, 7:10 PM: PIT Pirates (YES) vs MIA Marlins (NO)

Friday 3/28, 8:05 PM: BOS Red Sox (YES) vs TEX Rangers (NO)

Friday 3/28, 8:10 PM: NY Mets (YES) vs HOU Astros (NO) 

Friday 3/28, 9:40 PM: ATL Braves (YES) vs SD Padres (NO) 

Friday 3/28, 9:40 PM: CHI Cubs (YES) vs ARZ Diamondbacks (NO) 

Friday 3/28, 9:40 PM: Athletics (YES) vs SEA Mariners (NO) 

Friday 3/28, 10:10 PM: DET Tigers  (YES) vs LAD Dodgers (NO) 

Saturday 3/29, 1:05 PM: MIL Brewers (YES) vs NY Yankees (NO) 

Saturday 3/29, 2:10 PM: LA Angels (YES) vs CHI White Sox (NO) 

Saturday 3/29, 2:15 PM: MIN Twins (YES) vs STL Cardinals (NO) 

Saturday 3/29, 3:07 PM: BAL Orioles (YES) vs TOR Blue Jays (NO) 

Saturday 3/29, 4:05 PM: PHI Phillies (YES) vs WSH Nationals (NO) 

Saturday 3/29, 4:10 PM: COL Rockies (YES) vs TB Rays (NO) 

Saturday 3/29, 4:10 PM: PIT Pirates (YES) vs MIA Marlins (NO) 

Saturday 3/29, 4:10 PM: SF Giants (YES) vs CIN Reds (NO) 

Saturday 3/29, 4:10 PM: CLE Guardians (YES) vs KC Royals (NO) 

Saturday 3/29, 7:05 PM: BOS Red Sox (YES) vs TEX Rangers (NO) 

Saturday 3/29, 7:15 PM: NY Mets (YES) vs HOU Astros (NO) 

Saturday 3/29, 7:15 PM: ATL Braves (YES) vs SD Padres (NO) 

Saturday 3/29, 8:10 PM: CHI Cubs (YES) vs ARZ Diamondbacks (NO) 

Saturday 3/29, 9:10 PM: DET Tigers (YES) vs LA Dodgers (NO) 

Saturday 3/29, 9:40 PM: Athletics (YES) vs SEA Mariners (NO) 

Sunday 3/30, 1:35 PM: MIL Brewers (YES) vs NY Yankees (NO) 

Sunday 3/30, 1:35 PM: PHI Phillies (YES) vs WSH Nationals (NO) 

Sunday 3/30, 1:37 PM: BAL Orioles (YES) vs TOR Blue Jays (NO) 

Sunday 3/30, 1:40 PM: COL Rockies (YES) vs TB Rays (NO) 

Sunday 3/30, 1:40 PM: PIT Pirates (YES) vs MIA Marlins (NO) 

Sunday 3/30, 1:40 PM: SF Giants (YES) vs CIN Reds (NO) 

Sunday 3/30, 2:10 PM: LA Angels (YES) vs CHI White Sox (NO) 

Sunday 3/30, 2:15 PM: CLE Guardians (YES) vs KC Royals (NO) 

Sunday 3/30, 2:15 PM: MIN Twins (YES) vs STL Cardinals (NO) 

Sunday 3/30, 2:35 PM: BOS Red Sox (YES) vs TEX Rangers (NO) 

Sunday 3/30, 4:10 PM: CHI Cubs (YES) vs ARZ Diamondbacks (NO) 

Sunday 3/30, 4:10 PM: Athletics (YES) vs SEA Mariners (NO) 

Sunday 3/30, 7:10 PM: ATL Braves (YES) vs SD Padres (NO) 

Monday 3/31, 2:10 PM: KC Royals (YES) vs MIL Brewers (NO) 

Monday 3/31, 2:10 PM: MIN Twins (YES) vs CHW White Sox (NO)

Monday 3/31, 3:05 PM: BOS Red Sox (YES) vs BAL Orioles (NO)

Monday 3/31, 3:05 PM: COL Rockies (YES) vs PHI Phillies (NO)

Monday 3/31, 6:40 PM: NYM Mets (YES) vs MIA Marlins (NO)

Monday 3/31, 6:40 PM: TEX Rangers (YES) vs CIN Reds (NO)

Monday 3/31, 7:05 PM: PIT Pirates (YES) vs TB Rays (NO)

Monday 3/31, 7:07 PM: WSH Nationals (YES) vs TOR Blue Jays (NO)

Monday 3/31, 7:45 PM: LAA Angels (YES) vs STL Cardinals (NO)

Monday 3/31, 8:10 PM: SF Giants (YES) vs HOU Astros (NO)

Monday 3/31, 9:40PM: CLE Guardians (YES) vs SD Padres (NO)

Monday 3/31, 9:40PM: DET Tigers (YES) vs SEA Mariners (NO)

Monday 3/31, 10:05 PM: CHC Cubs (YES) vs Athletics  (NO)

Monday 3/31, 10:10 PM: ATL Braves (YES) vs LAD Dodgers (NO)

Tuesday 4/1, 6:40 PM: NYM Mets (YES) vs MIA Marlins (NO) 

Tuesday 4/1, 6:40 PM: TEX Rangers (YES) vs CIN Reds (NO)

Tuesday 4/1, 7:05 PM: ARZ Diamondbacks (YES) vs NYY Yankees (NO) 

Tuesday 4/1, 7:05 PM: PIT Pirates (YES) vs TB Rays (NO) 

Tuesday 4/1, 7:07 PM: WSH Nationals (YES) vs TOR Blue Jays (NO) 

Tuesday 4/1, 7:40 PM: KC Royals (YES) vs MIL Brewers (NO) 

Tuesday 4/1, 7:40 PM: MIN Twins (YES) vs CWS White Sox (NO) 

Tuesday 4/1, 7:45 PM: LAA Angels (YES) vs STL Cardinals (NO) 

Tuesday 4/1, 8:10 PM: SF Giants (YES) vs  HOU Astros (NO) 

Tuesday 4/1, 9:40 PM: CLE Guardians (YES) vs SD Padres (NO) 

Tuesday 4/1, 9:40 PM: DET Tigers (YES) vs SEA Mariners (NO) 

Tuesday 4/1, 10:05 PM: CHC Cubs (YES) vs Athletics (NO) 

Tuesday 4/1, 10:10 PM: ATL Braves (YES) vs LAD Dodgers (NO) 

Wednesday 4/2, 12:40 PM: TEX Rangers (YES) vs CIN Reds (NO)

Wednesday 4/2, 1:10 PM: PIT Pirates (YES) vs TB Rays (NO) 

 Wednesday 4/2, 1:10 PM: KC Royals (YES) vs MIL Brewers (NO) 

 Wednesday 4/2, 1:15 PM: LAA Angels (YES) vs STL Cardinals (NO) 

Wednesday 4/2, 2:10 PM: MIN Twins (YES) vs CWS White Sox (NO) 

Wednesday 4/2, 3:07 PM: WSH Nationals (YES) vs TOR Blue Jays (NO) 

Wednesday 4/2, 3:35 PM: CHC Cubs (YES) vs Athletics (NO) 

Wednesday 4/2, 4:10 PM: SF Giants (YES) vs HOU Astros (NO) 

Wednesday 4/2, 4:10 PM: CLE Guardians (YES) vs SD Padres (NO) 

Wednesday 4/2, 4:10 PM: DET Tigers (YES) vs SEA Mariners (NO) 

Wednesday 4/2, 4:40 PM: NYM Mets (YES) vs MIA Marlins (NO) 

Wednesday 4/2, 6:45 PM: BOS Red Sox (YES) vs BAL Orioles (NO) 

Wednesday 4/2, 6:45 PM: COL Rockies (YES) vs PHI Phillies (NO) 

Wednesday 4/2, 7:05 PM: ARZ Diamondbacks (YES) vs NYY Yankees (NO) 

Wednesday 4/2, 8:38 PM: ATL Braves (YES) vs LAD Dodgers (NO) 

Thursday 4/3, 1:05 PM: BOS Red Sox (YES) vs BAL Orioles (NO) 

Thursday 4/3, 1:05 PM: COL Rockies (YES) vs PHI Phillies (NO) 

Thursday 4/3, 4:10 PM: HOU Astros (YES) vs MIN Twins (NO) 

Thursday 4/3, 7:05 PM: ARZ Diamondbacks (YES) vs NYY Yankees (NO) 

Thursday 4/3, 7:40PM: CIN Reds (YES) vs MIL Brewers (NO) 

Friday 4/4, 1:10 PM: CWS White Sox (YES) vs DET Tigers (NO)

Postponed games will resolve N/A and reposted when a makeup date is scheduled. 

Have fun and remember to trade responsibly.

Will a rough majority of scientists working in relevant domains believe there are or were living organisms on planet K2-18 b at any time before the start of 2027? 

On Earth, DMS is only produced by life, primarily microbial life such as marine phytoplankton, suggesting the possibility of biological activity on K2-18 b

https://twitter.com/whitepill_pw/status/1701661250055262465

This will resolve N/A. There are no events below this. Unless you changed the sort ;)

3/25 09:50 ATP Casper Ruud WIN vs Francisco Cerundolo

3/25 11:00 ATP Taylor Fritz WIN vs Adam Walton

3/25 11:00 WTA Magda Linette WIN vs Jasmine Paolini

3/25 12:30 ATP Lorenzo Musetti WIN vs Novak Djokovic

3/25 13:00 ATP Alex de Minaur WIN vs Matteo Berrettini

3/25 16:00 ATP Tomas Machac WIN vs Jakub Mensik

3/25 16:00 WTA Aryna Sabalenka WIN vs Qinwen Zheng

3/25 16:10 NBA Orlando Magic WIN @ Charlotte Hornets

3/25 16:10 NBA San Antonio Spurs WIN @ Detroit Pistons

3/25 16:30 NBA Dallas Mavericks WIN @ New York Knicks

3/25 16:30 NBA Golden State Warriors WIN @ Miami Heat

3/25 17:10 NBA Atlanta Hawks WIN @ Houston Rockets

3/25 17:10 NHL Vegas Golden Knights WIN @ Minnesota Wild

3/25 17:10 NHL Washington Capitals WIN @ Winnipeg Jets

3/25 17:30 ATP Alexander Zverev WIN vs Arthur Fils

3/25 18:10 NBA Memphis Grizzlies WIN @ Utah Jazz

3/25 18:10 NHL Detroit Red Wings WIN @ Colorado Avalanche

3/25 19:10 NBA Cleveland Cavaliers WIN @ Portland Trail Blazers

3/25 19:10 NBA Oklahoma City Thunder WIN @ Sacramento Kings

3/25 19:40 NHL New York Rangers WIN @ Los Angeles Kings

3/26 07:00 IPL Rajasthan Royals WIN vs Kolkata Knight Riders

3/26 10:00 WTA Alexandra Eala WIN vs Iga Swiatek

3/26 12:00 ATP Alexander Zverev WIN vs Arthur Fils

3/26 13:30 ATP Francisco Cerundolo WIN vs Grigor Dimitrov

3/26 14:00 NCAAB Illinois St Redbirds WIN @ Cleveland St Vikings

3/26 16:00 NBA Washington Wizards WIN @ Philadelphia 76ers

3/26 16:00 WTA Emma Raducanu WIN vs Jessica Pegula

3/26 16:30 NBA Los Angeles Clippers WIN @ New York Knicks

3/26 16:30 NBA Toronto Raptors WIN @ Brooklyn Nets

3/26 16:30 NHL New Jersey Devils WIN @ Chicago Blackhawks

3/26 16:40 NBA Los Angeles Lakers WIN @ Indiana Pacers

3/27 13:30 ATP Sebastian Korda WIN vs Novak Djokovic

3/26 18:00 NBA Milwaukee Bucks WIN @ Denver Nuggets

3/26 19:00 NBA Boston Celtics WIN @ Phoenix Suns

3/26 19:00 NHL Boston Bruins WIN @ Anaheim Ducks

3/26 19:00 NHL Dallas Stars WIN @ Edmonton Oilers

3/27 10:00 ATP Arthur Fils WIN vs Jakub Mensik

3/27 12:00 WTA Aryna Sabalenka WIN vs Jasmine Paolini

3/27 12:05 MLB Milwaukee Brewers WIN @ New York Yankees

3/27 12:07 MLB Baltimore Orioles WIN @ Toronto Blue Jays

3/27 13:00 LL Barcelona WIN vs CA Osasuna

3/27 13:05 MLB Boston Red Sox WIN @ Texas Rangers

3/27 13:05 MLB Philadelphia Phillies WIN @ Washington Nationals

3/27 13:10 MLB Atlanta Braves WIN @ San Diego Padres

3/27 13:10 MLB Cleveland Guardians WIN @ Kansas City Royals

3/27 13:10 MLB Los Angeles Angels WIN @ Chicago White Sox

3/27 13:10 MLB New York Mets WIN @ Houston Astros

3/27 13:10 MLB Pittsburgh Pirates WIN @ Miami Marlins

3/27 13:10 MLB San Francisco Giants WIN @ Cincinnati Reds

3/27 13:15 MLB Minnesota Twins WIN @ St. Louis Cardinals

3/27 16:00 ATP Taylor Fritz WIN vs Matteo Berrettini

3/27 16:00 NBA Dallas Mavericks WIN @ Orlando Magic

3/27 16:00 NBA Indiana Pacers WIN @ Washington Wizards

3/27 16:00 NBA San Antonio Spurs WIN @ Cleveland Cavaliers

3/27 16:09 NCAAB BYU Cougars WIN @ Alabama Crimson Tide

3/27 16:10 MLB Detroit Tigers WIN @ Los Angeles Dodgers

3/27 16:30 NBA Atlanta Hawks WIN @ Miami Heat