Resolution is based on the chatbot arena LLM leaderboard (

), specifically the company with the highest Arena Score in the Overall category without filters (without style control or show deprecated), at the end of July 31st, 2025 11:59PM ET.

In the case of a tie, all companies tied for 1st place resolve to equal probability, such that they sum to 100%.

Recursively improving coding agents will succeed in the market

xAI will gain a sizable lead in model quality

The specific model will not matter as much as today; the network of agents will be important

In my blog post on what I learned in a year of building a coding agent, I list several forecasts, which I've added to this market.

https://jamesgrugett.com/p/what-i-learned-building-an-ai-coding

I considered assigning my own percentage forecasts to each of them in the article, but it seemed a little cluttered. I'll add them here:

60% - “Live learning” will be standard

70% - Coding agents will flip the initiative

50% - Recursively improving coding agents will succeed in the market

50% - xAI will gain a sizable lead in model quality

60% - The specific model will not matter as much as today; the network of agents will be important

https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/will-ai-agents-be-able-to-code-a-sm

 in advanced talks to acquire Windsurf, a coding assistant startup, for over $3 billion. This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that Windsurf will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with OpenAI by the end of 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

EG "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

Will it be possible for a non Tesla employee to ride in a fully autonomous Tesla vehicle anywhere in the world by the end of 2025?

Has to be a service that non Tesla employees can use. Has to be a point to point ride of at least 1 mile. Has to be on public roads in a city. 

The House Energy & Commerce Committee has included a provision in its reconciliation bill that would ban AI regulation by state and local governments for the next 10 years.

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if this provision passes both the House and the Senate and is signed into law by the President before July 14, 2025. Resolution will be based on official legislative records and credible news sources.

https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2025/05/stopping-states-passing-ai-laws-next-decade-terrible-idea

Resolves to the winner of the League of Legends (LoL) 2025 Midseason Invitational (MSI).

Al Ahly beats Inter Miami CF ⚽ (June 14)

Bayern Munich beats Auckland City ⚽ (June 15)

Paris Saint-Germain beats Atlético Madrid ⚽ (June 15)

Botafogo beats Seattle Sounders FC ⚽ (June 15)

Flamengo beats Espérance de Tunis ⚽ (June 16)

Fluminense beats Borussia Dortmund ⚽ (June 17)

River Plate beats Urawa Red Diamonds ⚽ (June 17)

Ulsan Hyundai beats Mamelodi Sundowns ⚽ (June 17)

Monterrey beats Internazionale ⚽ (June 17)

Manchester City beats Wydad AC ⚽ (June 18)

Inter Miami CF beats FC Porto ⚽ (June 19)

Seattle Sounders FC beats Atlético Madrid ⚽ (June 19)

Paris Saint-Germain beats Botafogo ⚽ (June 19)

Benfica beats Auckland City ⚽ (June 20)

LAFC beats Espérance de Tunis ⚽ (June 20)

Bayern Munich beats Boca Juniors ⚽ (June 20)

Mamelodi Sundowns beats Borussia Dortmund ⚽ (June 21)

Internazionale beats Urawa Red Diamonds ⚽ (June 21)

Fluminense beats Ulsan Hyundai ⚽ (June 21)

River Plate beats Monterrey ⚽ (June 21)

Manchester City beats Al-Ain ⚽ (June 22)

Atlético Madrid beats Botafogo ⚽ (June 23)

Seattle Sounders FC beats Paris Saint-Germain ⚽ (June 23)

Inter Miami CF beats Palmeiras ⚽ (June 23)

Auckland City beats Boca Juniors ⚽ (June 24)

Benfica beats Bayern Munich ⚽ (June 24)

Espérance de Tunis beats Chelsea ⚽ (June 24)

Borussia Dortmund beats Ulsan Hyundai ⚽ (June 25)

Mamelodi Sundowns beats Fluminense ⚽ (June 25)

Internazionale beats River Plate ⚽ (June 25)

Urawa Red Diamonds beats Monterrey ⚽ (June 25)

Juventus beats Manchester City ⚽ (June 26)

RB Salzburg beats Real Madrid ⚽ (June 26)

Palmeiras beats Botafogo ⚽ (June 28) 12pm

Manchester City beats Al-Hilal ⚽ (June 30) 9pm

Real Madrid beats Juventus ⚽ (July 1) 3pm

Dortmund beats Monterrey ⚽ (July 1) 9pm

Fluminense beats Al-Hilal ⚽ (July 4) 3pm

PSG beats Bayern Munich ⚽ (July 5) 12pm

Real Madrid beats Dortmund ⚽ (July 5) 4pm

Fluminense beats Chelsea ⚽️ (July 8) 3pm

PSG beats Real Madrid ⚽️ (July 9) 3pm

🏆 Winner at end of match (including extra time & penalty shoot-out if applicable)

outcome of the match played on July 8, 2025

, between Noah and Budućnos (not to who advances to the next round).

If the match ends in a draw after 90 minutes

, the winning outcome will be determined by 

, according to UEFA rules (aggregate score over both legs, including extra time and penalties if needed).

Official match records from the England and Wales Cricket Board (ECB) and the Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI) will be used to determine outcomes.

The second Test between England and India is scheduled from July 2 to July 6, 2025, at Edgbaston, Birmingham. (

) This match is part of the five-Test series in the 2025-27 ICC World Test Championship cycle. (

England leads the series 1-0 after a five-wicket victory in the first Test at Headingley. (

) Fast bowler Jofra Archer has been added to England's squad for the second Test, marking his return to Test cricket after a prolonged injury absence. (

India's head coach Gautam Gambhir has indicated that Jasprit Bumrah will play in only three of the five Tests to manage his workload, though specific matches have not been confirmed. (

, between KuPS Kuopio and Milsami (not to who advances to the next round).

, between Olimpija and Kairat (not to who advances to the next round).

This market will resolve to the driver who wins the 2025 British Grand Prix, scheduled for July 6, 2025, at Silverstone Circuit. The official race results published on the 

 will determine the outcome. If none of the listed drivers win, the market will resolve to "Other."

Elon Musk has expressed intention to create a new political party 

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1930685402631053403?s=46&t=mr67c6cgUP2ic11sukpB0g

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk officially establishes a new political party in the United States by December 31, 2025. For the purpose of this market, a political party is defined an organization that coordinates candidates to compete in American elections and doesn’t require governmental recognition. 

https://store.steampowered.com/app/2923300/Banana/

Resolves yes if at least one of these points is true for at least 2 weeks before the end of 2025

Following President Trump's recent airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities without explicit congressional approval, there is debate over the constitutionality of his actions. This market predicts whether Congress will pass a formal resolution condemning these airstrikes before July 21, 2025. Resolution will be based on official congressional records.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2025, Elon Musk officially forms a new political party in the United States. Official formation is defined as Musk publicly announcing the creation of the party and filing the necessary paperwork with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) to establish the party's legal status. Verification will be based on official FEC records and credible news reports.

In June 2025, Elon Musk publicly criticized President Donald Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill," a significant tax-and-spending package. Musk labeled the bill a "disgusting abomination" and expressed concerns over its potential to increase the national deficit by nearly $3.3 trillion. In response to the bill's passage, Musk suggested the formation of a new political entity, tentatively named the "America Party," aiming to represent the centrist majority of Americans. This proposal emerged amid escalating tensions between Musk and Trump, with the latter threatening to review and potentially cut federal subsidies to Musk's companies, such as Tesla and SpaceX. (

The establishment of a new political party in the U.S. involves navigating complex legal and bureaucratic processes, including state-specific ballot access requirements and compliance with FEC regulations. While Musk's substantial resources could facilitate these steps, the actual formation and operationalization of a new party within the specified timeframe remain uncertain. Additionally, Musk's previous political engagements have been marked by shifts in allegiance, which may influence the likelihood of him following through on this initiative. (

I will not bet in this market due to its subjective nature. 

 This resolves based on my perspective at (or before) the end of 2025 (if there is ambiguity, I may/will consult with other Manifold superusers).

Clear things that would get this to resolve YES:

-Trump wins, Musk becomes clearly disillusioned by right wing politics and starts heavily criticizing Trump and aligning himself with more centrist or left-wing politics or figures.

-Harris wins, Musk pivots and aligns himself with her or endorses her as a president.

-Musk retracts his endorsement of Musk before the election happens.

-Musk disagrees with Trump on election denialism but still aligns himself with the MAGA/Trump movement.

-Musk publicly admires some executive action or bill passed by Harris or the democratic party.

-Musk criticizes one of Trump's policies.

I would like to see some clear evidence of a political realignment for a YES resolution, even if that realignment is just from right-wing/MAGA/Trumpism to Musk's previous fairly centrist politics.

A change to a different type of right-wing politics or a move further to the right will not be sufficient for a 

This market will resolve to the official name of the political party announced by Elon Musk in 2025. If Musk does not announce the formation of a political party by December 31, 2025, the market will resolve to "Elon doesn't create a party in 2025." Verification will be based on credible news sources and official statements from Musk.

In June 2025, Elon Musk proposed the creation of a new political party named the "America Party," aiming to represent centrist views. This proposal emerged amid escalating tensions between Musk and President Donald Trump, following disagreements over legislative initiatives and policy directions. Musk's initiative seeks to address what he perceives as a lack of representation for the moderate majority in the current political landscape. (

If you can guess the nickname in the comments below (ONE GUESS PER ACCOUNT) before Trump first uses it, I will send you 420 + 69 mana. 

The brewing dispute between Elon Musk and Donald Trump has escalated rapidly in the past 72 hours. Will it devolve into open investigations or legal attacks against any of the companies in Elon Musk's business empire? Resolves YES if one or more such retaliatory investigations or executive orders is targeted against Musk's companies (or any similar attack that substantially curtails their operations) I will exercise my judgement to determine what is or isn't retaliatory -  a normal investigation might not qualify here. I'm looking for a dynamic like the executive orders against Democratic law firms or the attacks on Harvard to qualify for a YES resolution. Since there is an element of subjectivity here, I will not bet.

 if Elon Musk publicly announces the creation of a new political party before the end of Trump’s current term (January 20, 2029).

🇺🇸 US Politics

🖥️ Technology

🤖 AI

🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture

🏟️ Sports

🧪 Science

Resolves to the person who wins the majority of votes for US President in the 

, or selected by Congress following the contingency procedure in the 

(May resolve provisionally if both the Associated Press projects a winner and the losing major party candidate concedes; if Manifold allows provisional resolutions.)

For the first HLE score for grok 4 reasoning (or if multiple are released at once, the highest), unless it is a month+ after grok 4 release, will it show up on 

https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam

As a score of 45% or more, after rounding, for the reasoning version of grok 4?

Ryo Tatsuki, a former manga artist known for her purportedly accurate disaster predictions, has forecasted a mega-tsunami to occur in July 2025. She describes visions of the sea south of Japan "boiling," which she interprets as signs of an underwater volcanic explosion leading to a tsunami three times larger than the one in 2011. This prediction has gained attention, though it lacks scientific substantiation.

The disaster may be natural or man-made. Examples that would count include passenger plane crashes, tsunamis, earthquakes, volcanoes, etc.

, and is eligible to run again in 2025, but appears likely to face 

This question resolves YES to the named individual who wins NYC's mayoral election in 2025, and NO to everyone else.

Who will be elected mayor of New York City in 2025?

Loki is a giant from elbaf that has a tragic backstory the story is similar to Sanjis 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2025, Loki is depicted as an official member of the Straw Hat Pirates in the "One Piece" manga or anime. Official membership is defined as Loki being recognized as part of the crew by both the Straw Hat Pirates and the series' author, Eiichiro Oda. If no such depiction occurs by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."

Loki is the prince of Elbaf, a kingdom of giants in the "One Piece" universe. He is known as the "Accursed Prince" and the "Shame of Elbaf" due to his alleged patricide of King Harald to obtain a legendary Devil Fruit. This act led to his imprisonment and a tarnished reputation among his people. (

In the Elbaf arc, Loki's character is further explored, revealing complexities beyond his notorious past. He has interactions with Monkey D. Luffy, the captain of the Straw Hat Pirates, which have sparked fan theories about his potential alliance or membership with the crew. (