https://x.com/davidmbudden/status/2002213723046281725

 it was due to Daniel's psychosis clause. That'll still resolve this to YES, since Daniel won and was being magnanimous.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if ChatGPT reaches 1 billion monthly active users (MAUs) during by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PMET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source will be official information from OpenAI, however a consensus of reputable sources including, major analytics firms (e.g. Similarweb, Sensor Tower), investor or regulatory disclosures, or reputable media may also be used.

This market will resolve based on Elon Musk's net worth as reported by Forbes and Bloomberg. I intend to meet the spirit of the following, but will use my best judgement to resolve, including replacing these sources with other financial media if I decide it's necessary: 

"If both of these sources agree that Elon Musk has a net worth of greater than or equal to $1 trillion on any single date on or before Dec 31st, 2028, the market will resolve yes; otherwise it will resolve no. "

https://www.forbes.com/profile/elon-musk/

https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/

Question is about any current or future openAI models vs any competitor models.

If a language model exists that is undoubtedly the most accurate, reliable, capable, and powerful, that model will win. If there is dispute as to which is more powerful, a significant popularity/accessibility advantage will decide the winner. There must be public access for it to be eligible.

See previous market for more insight into my resolution plan: 

: capabilities were "similar". Both Google and openAI models tied for first place on LLM Arena. OpenAI won because of their popularity/market dominance.

 if OpenAI releases no new models by end of year.

Creator acknowledges Gemini/Claude dominate ChatGPT for top-end use, but notes most people either don't know or don't care that they are better.

: Creator believes Gemini and Claude are sufficiently ahead of ChatGPT based on all metrics.

: Benchmarks, stock market activity, and OpenAI's "code red" all indicate OpenAI knows they are no longer the leader

, resolution may be more complicated. Otherwise, market resolves YES if these conditions aren't met.

Creator notes the "strongly surpassed" language is meant to avoid situations where OpenAI has achieved AGI/ASI but loses due to release schedules. Since OpenAI has shown signs they're worried (code red, etc.), if the new model isn't a top scorer, they know OpenAI was passed.

https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-complete-long-tasks/

Resolves to the longest 50% Time Horizon as measured by METR, for any AI system, by the end of 2026. Answers that are passed early can be resolved early.

IMPORTANT: Resolves to all thresholds exceeded, not just to the highest one that applies. eg for a 11 hour time horizon, ">10h" resolves yes, but so does >6h and >8h

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2025, at least one sold Tesla vehicle autonomously drives from a Tesla facility directly to the buyer's house.

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1912243208421023763?t=d8-LSblgX1Rv1jTho6LxxA&s=19

Same as the main market but the AI must only be at the level of the worst filmmakers, rather than the best. So instead of a Marvel movie level of quality, think The Room level of quality. That's the yardstick that I will be using. Alternatively it can be any other well-known bad movie, like Birdemic or Who Killed Captain Alex. It doesn't need to have the "so bad it's good" qualities of The Room, but it needs to have a minimally coherent plot structure and cinematography. It must not be too painful for humans to watch the entire thing, and it needs to have the basics like characters say and do things that advance the plot, at least usually.

Whole shoe, doesn't require a valid NS solution

The option with the highest 2025 gross on the "Gross" column on 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2025/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses

 once data for December 31 is made available, will resolve YES.

Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2025 - dates outside of 2025 will not count toward this movie's gross.

Vikings beat Giants (12/21) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Rams beat Seahawks (12/18) 8:15 PM (Prime Video)

Eagles beat Commanders (12/20) 8:00 PM (FOX)

Patriots beat Ravens (12/21) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Buccaneers beat Panthers (12/21) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Chargers beat Cowboys (12/21) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Falcons beat Cardinals (12/21) 4:05 PM (FOX)

Jaguars beat Broncos (12/21) 4:05 PM (FOX)

Steelers beat Lions (12/21) 4:25 PM (CBS)

Raiders beat Texans (12/21) 4:25 PM (CBS)

Bengals beat Dolphins (12/21) 8:20 PM (NBC)

Get ready for an exhilarating season of football!

 (⭐4.96) for lightning-fast market resolutions and surprise market liquidity boosts all year long. Don't miss out—join the excitement today!

The player with the most passing yards wears a prime number

Game Winning Drive starting in the last 2 Minutes

AFC or NFC Offensive Player of the Week is a Running Back

A Starting QB gets a likely Season Ending Injury

Player Records at least 2 Interceptions in a Game

Quarterback throws at least 4 Touchdowns in a game

Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game

For each letter of the alphabet, at least one touchdown is scored by a player that has that letter in their first or last name

Score as time expires in the 4th Quarter/OT

Any team scores 24+ points before halftime

Any player throws for more than 350 yards and loses

A QB has at least 2 turnovers and at least 4 TDs (including passing)

A QB has at least 3 turnovers and at least 3 TDs (including passing)

Highest Scoring Game of the Season (so far)*

A lateral more than a yard past the line of scrimmage (non-last play of the game)

Bird teams finish with a better record than Cat teams (Win %)

At least one missed kicking extra point attempt

A prime number of total missed field goals + extra points

Team change in top 5 Super Bowl favorites from previous Wednesday to Wednesday after the weeks games

2 Point Conversions convert at 50% or higher for the Week

California Teams (Chargers, Rams, 49ers) finish the week with a better record than New York State teams (Bills, Jets, Giants)

A 1pm ET game is still going when a 4:25pm ET game starts

Any player scores 3 TDs in a game (non-passing)

For each game, take the GCD of both teams' scores. Is the result for any game at least 8?

Hip Drop Tackle penalty called during any game

4th and Goal from the 1 (or inches) stopped

3 Missed FGs or Extra Points (from both teams combined) in a Game

Final score from any game contains two triangular numbers [0, 1, 3, 6, 10, 15, 21, 28, 36, 45, 55,...]

Add your own props! Answers should be able to be resolved by about a Week after this Week's game slate completes!

TBD defeats TBD - Fiesta Bowl (Thu 1/8 4:30pm PST)

#8 Oklahoma defeats #9 Alabama - First Round (Fri 12/19 5:00pm PST)

#7 Texas A&M defeats #10 Miami - First Round (Sat 12/20 9:00am PST)

#6 Ole Miss defeats #11 Tulane - First Round (Sat 12/20 12:30pm PST)

#5 Oregon defeats #12 James Madison - First Round (Sat 12/20 4:30pm PST)

#2 Ohio State defeats #10 Miami - Cotton Bowl (Wed 12/31 4:30pm PST)

#4 Texas Tech defeats #5 Oregon - Orange Bowl (Thu 1/1 9:00am PST)

#1 Indiana defeats #9 Alabama - Rose Bowl (Thu 1/1 1:00pm PST)

#3 Georgia defeats #6 Ole Miss - Sugar Bowl (Thu 1/1 5:00pm PST)

TBD defeats TBD - Peach Bowl (Fri 1/9 4:30pm PST)

TBD defeats TBD - National Championship (Mon 1/19 4:30pm PST)

College Football Playoff (December 19, 2025 - January 19, 2026)

Resolves YES if the better-seeded team (listed first) wins and resolves NO if they lose

If games are postponed, the close time will be extended

If the official result is a tie, due to a cancellation or any other reason, the market resolves to 50% for each team

16 points chosen as that equates to "2 scores". Current spreads are around Ole Miss - 17.5, Oregon - 21.5.

Resolves YES for all true markets. Will add more options as the season progresses.

It doesn't have to be correct, if he asked gpt to write a plausible-looking but fake lean proof of Navier Stokes and then posted it and claimed it was his that would resolve this YES. This is just about him dropping anything

 which is a platform for ranking LLMs based on human ratings. I 

wonder which company will be #1 with the highest ELO rating at the end of 2025. 

Resolves YES if and only if: Trump golfs anytime during the time Friday 12:00 AM to Sunday 11:59 PM between Dec 19 and 21.

 to verify if any golfing happened. I will go off the RollCall calendar if for whatever reason the site fails to update in time.

Track Donald Trump's golf outings and the cost to taxpayers.

Did Trump Golf Today?

Will there be a major change with Trump's election such that the U.S. does not live in a traditional US Democracy anymore?  Such conditions would include things like: Trump running for a 3rd term, declaration of Martial Law at any point, removing Supreme Court Justices or ignoring a material order from SCOTUS, Executive Branch overturning a certified election result, refusing a transition of power, etc.      This will be certified "yes" if a major event occurs that is considered a fundamental ending of our democracy as we know it and multiple major news organizations declare as much.  

: This has received a lot more attention lately and more than I expected, so let me clarify a few things to try and help add some details around resolution and answer questions:

 Given Trump's recent statements regarding running for a third term, I thought I should provide some more details/clarity on how I would resolve "runs for a third term" in my resolution criteria from above.  In order for this to resolve "yes", he must 

run for a third term (not "win", but successfully run).  An attempt to run is only an attempt to subvert the constitution.  If it is stopped, then our checks and system held and thwarted the attempt.  Just as an attempted military coup would not be the end of our democracy, unless it succeeded.   Thus, it is not enough for Trump to declare, file the paperwork and start campaigning.  As long as his run is stopped by either the Republican Party, congress, state government, the courts or public backlash, then our system held.  So when would I declare the attempt was not able to be stopped and has thus succeeded?   The line would be if Trump gets on the primary ballot and is an option when the first primaries are held (caucuses are weird, so would not count that) and/or is an option on enough primary ballots to be selected as a candidate (should he lose the early decisions but is let on to the later ballots).  If he decides to run as an independent or other third party, the same would hold if he was on sufficient ballots for the actual national election. By that time, there would have been plenty of opportunity for him to be stopped via republican party (not inviting him to participate in debates or other official process), state action (not allowing on ballots, etc), congressional action (e.g. Impeachment),  court injunction, or public backlash.  If none of those stop him and he is a viable option for voting at the start of the primary (or later becomes an option in the primary process), I would consider our system to enforce the constitution to have failed.  Note, if a couple of deep red state midway through the primary adds him to the ballot despite one of these checks as a more symbolic measure (i.e. there is no real chance of him getting the nomination considering he has been removed everywhere else or dropped out), this would not count.  

Two other points of clarification on this item.  If the constitution is changed to allow him to run for another term, I would still resolve this as "yes." Given modern history has had term limits and our democracy as we know it now relies on that, and to then repeal/modify the 22nd amendment 

 for one person would be a change to our agreed principles for one person that we have not done for anyone else. It is one thing to change it on a future basis, but to do it for a specific person to continue to serve as leader, would be essentially be enshrining him as a "king" or "dictator". Also, such a change would most likely be done through representative electors (either congress or state legislatures) and not through an actual direct will of the people (i.e. it could be done by a small number of influential people who are close to the president and influenced by him). So, I would consider a repeal/amendment of the 22nd amendment allowing Trump to run for a third term and him becoming the nominee to resolve "yes". Similarly, if SCOTUS made a decision that the 22nd amendment does not forbid him from running again, I would resolve "yes." Given there is a very clear reading of the constitution that all legal scholars and really no reasonable person could interpret otherwise, then I  feel a 6-3 conservative court that so blatantly redefines the interpretation of the constitution for the benefit of allowing Trump to stay in power is an abdication of their role and check on the presidency, and thus is a fundamental change to our democracy as we know it.

Update 4/19/25:  A couple clarifications that have come up based on questions in comments that I think worth noting in here: 1) The market will resolve 

 if Trump is no longer president before resolving 

. In other words, if we have not hit a resolution criteria, and then he dies, is impeached & convicted, resigns or otherwise no longer in office for any reason, it will resolve "NO" since this is about Trump imhinself ending our democracy. 2) if there is a resolving criteria, but a chance for our system to rectify the criteria, I will hold resolution to see if that occurs.  For example, if Trump directly ignores a material SCOTUS order, but then backtracks due to public pressure or is impeached/convicted, then the checks in our systems worked and the attempt was nullified/thwarted.  This question is not getting at if Trump does something illegal or unconstitutional, it's whether our democratic system holds, so an attempt to subvert it that is stopped would save it.  

This market resolves to YES if, by December 31, 2025, either:

"Significantly limits" means the action substantively restricts the President's ability to impose tariffs unilaterally, beyond minor procedural hurdles. This could include striking down specific tariff orders, invalidating the legal basis for certain tariffs, or creating new statutory constraints on presidential tariff authority.

President Trump has indicated plans to use tariffs extensively in his second term, including potentially invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to justify broad tariff actions. In April 2025, Trump announced a 10% global tariff and an additional 11% tariff on Chinese imports.

The Constitution gives Congress primary authority over trade, but various laws passed over decades have delegated significant tariff powers to the executive branch. The President can impose tariffs under several statutory authorities, including Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act (national security), Section 301 of the Trade Act (unfair trade practices), and the IEEPA (national emergencies).

Courts have historically been reluctant to overturn presidential actions on trade and national security. However, the Supreme Court's "major questions doctrine" could potentially be applied to limit executive authority on tariffs that have significant economic impact without clear congressional authorization.

For Congress to successfully limit presidential tariff authority would likely require a veto-proof majority (two-thirds in both chambers), as the President would likely veto any legislation restricting his trade powers.

~50% or more of Americans receive it by end 2026

Significant number sent to non-citizens and/or non-existent people

Limit set at or below 99th percentile wealth or income

Limit set at or below 90th percentile wealth or income

Limit set at or below 70th percentile wealth or income

$ value explicitly tied to performance of tariffs

Multiple disparate "tariff dividends" (different sources or destinations)

Will it happen? If it does what will be true?

For ease of common parlance, "stimulus check" in this market is referring to the "dividends" of his post. If this becomes a completely unsustainable metaphor, some answers may need to resolve or be rewritten.

Will resolve to best reporting, at latest by the end of his time in office or within a few months after the checks go out to let news stories shake loose. If the check doesn't materialize before he leaves office, answers that are able to will resolve to YES or NO rather than N/A. (If that happens, I hope it's clear that 

 would resolve NO, but I imagine "All for the same amount" probably has to resolve N/A since it can be easily read as YES 

The AI keeps spamming duplicative nonsense with every reply I make so I've gotta shut it off for now.

There will be no AI clarifications added to this market's description. (ugh wish this were just a toggle)

Will resolve according to the Metaculus resolution:

 if, in calendar year 2025, the US Congress has passed a bill which implements a 10% or greater across-the-board tariff on nearly all imports from all countries (or other across-the-board fee on imports, see the fine print for details). The tariff will still be considered to be across-the-board if it excludes 10 or fewer UN member states.

Donald Trump has proposed a "Gold Card" program as an alternative to the existing EB-5 investor visa program. The Gold Card would reportedly cost $5 million per card, compared to the current EB-5 program which requires a minimum investment of $800,000 to $1.05 million. Trump has suggested these cards could generate significant revenue, with ambitious claims of potentially selling up to one million cards (which would theoretically generate $5 trillion).

The current EB-5 visa program typically issues fewer than 10,000 visas annually. The Gold Card program would target wealthy foreign nationals seeking expedited paths to U.S. residency.

This market will resolve to the total number of Trump Gold Cards sold during the 2025 calendar year (January 1, 2025 - December 31, 2025).

If the Gold Card program is not implemented or officially launched by the end of 2025, this market will resolve to 0.

If official government data on Gold Card sales is not publicly available, resolution will be based on credible media reports or official statements from the Trump administration regarding the number of cards sold.

🇺🇸 US Politics

🖥️ Technology

🤖 AI

🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture

🏟️ Sports

🧪 Science

Resolves to the person who wins the majority of votes for US President in the 

, or selected by Congress following the contingency procedure in the 

(May resolve provisionally if both the Associated Press projects a winner and the losing major party candidate concedes; if Manifold allows provisional resolutions.)

https://x.com/mhutter42/status/2001857421569032444

Resolves N/A if the bet is called off. (One party not paying out and the other party magnanimously saying "it's ok, I won't hold you to it" does not count as the bet being called off.)

There will be no AI clarifications added to this market's description.

. If at any point before the end of 2026, any person has a displayed net worth greater than or equal to $1 trillion USD, this market resolves YES.

If Forbes stops updating their list, I will pick a new canonical source that seems as reliable as possible.

Resolves yes if anthropic is worth more than apple in market capitalization before 2030

This market is a ranking competition in which human (who is alive as of Dec 14, 2025) are evaluated across three traits: Physical Strength, Intelligence, and Wealth.

While personal preference and subjective judgment cannot be eliminated entirely, I will make a good-faith effort to answer questions and explain how I evaluate each trait and determine relative rankings.  

I anticipate that cross intelligence comparison would be particularly subjective, if you ask me in the comments early on I will try my best to provide my answer to, for example, whether a specific chess world champion, fields medal winner, inventor, or hedge fund manager is considered more intelligent than the other option in my opinion.

that I believe have the strongest prospects of winning.

 will be considered for all trait rankings and overall scoring.

I will make an announcement at least 2 days before the randomize closing period is set.

The market will resolve based on the option that finishes with the 

 under the scoring system described above.

If it is debatable whether certain human exist or is alive or not, I reserve the right to disqualify such option.  