Manifold 2024 Election Forecast
Live prediction market odds on the US election
Which party will win the US Presidency?
270 to win
Arizona
DEM
1%
REP
99%
Georgia
DEM
1%
REP
99%
Michigan
DEM
1.7%
REP
98.3%
Nevada
DEM
1%
REP
99%
Pennsylvania
DEM
2%
REP
98%
Wisconsin
DEM
2%
REP
98%
Presidential Nomination
What will happen if...
Biden wins
Trump winsWill there be an executive order or legislation focused on AI before the 2026 midterms?
Presidential Debate
Resolved
YESTrump says 'the best' at least once, exact quote, can be in the middle of another sentence
Resolved
YESBoth of them say China at least once
Resolved
YESEither one is interrupted by the other.
Resolved
YESEither candidate mentions or alludes to any of Trump's trials.
NBC News
Trump says he will debate Biden 'anytime'
After skipping GOP primary debates, Trump challenged Biden to step onto a stage with him before the November election.
JD Vance
Resolved
NOWalz says "Weird"
Resolved
NOAnyone says "Couch"
Resolved
NODebate has live audience
Resolved
NOAnyone refers to Trump as a "Convicted felon"
Plus
Trump Trials
Premium
Prize Market100%1.6%
6-3 in Trump's favor
0.6%
9-0 in Trump's favor
0.5%
8-1 in Trump's favor
0.7%
7-2 in Trump's favor
100%98.2%
July - September 2024
0.1%
May 2024
0.3%
June 2024
1.4%
After September 30, 2024
CNN
Donald Trump found guilty of all 34 charges in hush money trial | CNN Politics
A Manhattan jury found Donald Trump guilty on all 34 counts of falsifying business records he faced in his New York hush money criminal trial.
AP News
Jurors in Trump hush money trial end 1st day of deliberations after asking to rehear testimony
Jurors will receive instructions from the judge on the law and the factors they may consider as they strive to reach a verdict in the first criminal case against a former American president.
CNN
Judge finds Donald Trump in contempt for 10th time over gag order and threatens jail time | CNN Politics
Judge Juan Merchan has found former President Donald Trump in contempt for violating the gag order in his hush money trial for the 10th time and said he’ll consider jail time going forward.
AP News
Hush money trial judge raises threat of jail as he finds Trump violated gag order, fines him $9K
Donald Trump has been held in contempt of court and fined $9,000 for repeatedly violating a gag order that barred him from making public statements about witnesses, jurors and some others connected to his New York hush money case.
Just a moment...
US Congress
100%99.0%
R President, R Senate, R House - Republican Trifecta
0.2%
D President, D Senate, D House - Democrat Trifecta
0.0%
D President, R Senate, R House
0.0%
D President, D Senate, R House
This dashboard covers the most competitive races in the 2024 US election.
Democrats Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown must hold their Senate seats in states expected to vote for Trump, or else the Republicans will win the Senate majority in November.
Meanwhile the Republicans have a slim majority in the House, which Democrats are keen to retake.
Your predictions here will contribute to the aggregated forecast at manifold.markets/politics
Resolved
N/AIf the Dem Nom beats Trump, Jon Tester wins the Montana Senate race
Resolved
N/AIf the Dem Nom beats Trump, Sherrod Brown wins the Ohio Senate Race
Resolved
NOIf the Dem Nom loses to Trump, Jon Tester wins the Montana Senate race
Resolved
NOIf Dem Nom loses to Trump, Sherrod Brown wins the Ohio Senate Race
NBC News
Sherrod Brown and Bernie Moreno rush to define each other as Ohio's Senate race shifts to the general election
Brown and Moreno are attempting to run on their own brands of populism while casting the other as out of touch in one of the year’s top Senate battles.
100%98%
Bernie Moreno (Republican Party)
2%
Sherrod Brown (Democratic Party)
0.0%Other
51%
Sherrod Brown
100%49%
Bernie Moreno
AP News
A Montana farmer with a flattop and ample lobbyist cash stands between the GOP and Senate control
Tester has survived three close elections and a changed national political landscape to emerge as the lone Democrat still holding high office in Montana.
100%99.0%
Tim Sheehy (Republican Party)
1.0%
Jon Tester (Democratic Party)
0.0%Other
Vox
Could Republican resignations flip the House to Democrats?
The GOP majority is quite small, but a Democratic takeover pre-election still seems extremely unlikely.
Resolved
YESAK-00 Mary Peltola (D)
Resolved
NOAL-02 NEW SEAT
Resolved
YESAZ-01 David Schweikert (R) - Won by 0.88%
Resolved
YESAZ-06 Juan Ciscomani (R) - Won by 1.50%
Swing States
2024 Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden | RealClearPolling
2024 Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden | RealClearPolling
100%98%
Republican Party
2%
Democratic Party
0.0%Other
100%99.1%
David McCormick (Republican Party)
0.9%
Bob Casey, Jr. (Democratic Party)
0.0%Other
Split Ticket
2024 Presidential Polling
For methodology, please see our writeup here. This page will be updated once every day with the newest numbers. It was last updated on November 5th, 2024. Please note that this is a polling aggregator, not a forecast. You can find our current ratings here.
Resolved
NOMaryland (Presidency and Senate)
Resolved
YESNew Hampshire (Presidency and Governorship)
Resolved
YESNorth Carolina (Presidency and Governorship)
Resolved
YESWisconsin (Presidency and Senate)
2024 Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden | RealClearPolling
2024 Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden | RealClearPolling
100%98%
Republican Party
2%
Democratic Party
0.1%Other
100%98.9%
Tammy Baldwin (Democratic Party)
1.1%
Eric Hovde (Republican Party)
0.0%Other
2024 North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden | RealClearPolling
2024 North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden | RealClearPolling
100%97%
Republican Party
3%
Democratic Party
0.0%Other
100%98.7%
Democratic Party
1.3%
Republican Party
0.0%Other
2024 Nevada: Trump vs. Biden | RealClearPolling
2024 Nevada: Trump vs. Biden | RealClearPolling
100%99.0%
Republican Party
1.0%
Democratic Party
0.0%Other
100%99.0%
Jacky Rosen (Democratic Party)
1.0%
Sam Brown (Republican Party)
0.0%Other
2024 Arizona: Trump vs. Biden | RealClearPolling
2024 Arizona: Trump vs. Biden | RealClearPolling
100%99.0%
Republican Party
1.0%
Democratic Party
0.0%Other
100%99.9%
Ruben Gallego (Democratic Party)
0.1%
Kari Lake (Republican Party)
0.0%Other
2024 Michigan: Trump vs. Biden | RealClearPolling
2024 Michigan: Trump vs. Biden | RealClearPolling
2024 New Hampshire: Trump vs. Biden | RealClearPolling
2024 New Hampshire: Trump vs. Biden | RealClearPolling
2024 Georgia: Trump vs. Biden | RealClearPolling
2024 Georgia: Trump vs. Biden | RealClearPolling
Polling
ABC News
6 months out, a tight presidential race with battle between issues and attributes: POLL
Locked in a tight presidential race, Trump prevails in trust to handle most issues in new ABC News/Ipsos poll, yet Biden scores competitively on key personal attributes.
Newsweek
Joe Biden's astonishing polling comeback
Recent surveys and polling aggregation websites indicate Joe Biden's chances of winning the national vote in November have improved significantly.
NPR
Here's what matters to voters — and what could change their minds if it's Biden-Trump
Preserving democracy is top of mind for Democrats and independents, while Republicans are most concerned about immigration. And there are big splits on how to handle immigration in particular.
TikTok Ban
100%99.0%
Usable by the public and owned by ByteDance
0.6%
Usable by the public and not owned by ByteDance
0.2%
Completely banned in the US
0.1%
Restricted in the US and owned by ByteDance
70%
TikTok will be sold to a non-Chinese company
15%
None of these will happen by EOY 2028
9%
TikTok will become unavailable in Apple/Google app stores in the US for at least 30 days
4%
The TikTok "ban" will be rendered unenforceable by courts (with little chance of appeal/overturn)
NPR
House approves sell-or-be-banned TikTok measure, attaching it to foreign aid bill
The bill, now advancing to the Senate, represents the most serious threat yet to the video app used by half of Americans.
36%
Divest it
64%
Shut it down
AP News
House passes a bill that could lead to a TikTok ban if Chinese owner refuses to sell
The bill would require the Chinese firm ByteDance to divest TikTok and other applications it owns within six months of the bill’s enactment.