MANIFOLD
Home
US Politics
News
About
App
Sign in
Dark
Light
(auto)
OpenAI
Deepseek
Israel Ceasefire
TikTok Ban
LA Fire
Oscars 2025
H5N1
Trump
Cabinet
Nintendo Switch 2
Trudeau Resigns
Hard Forkcasts 2025
Korea
Biden
House Speaker
Sora
Bitcoin
2028 Election
AGI Timelines
Taylor Swift
Elon/Tesla
Sama Drama
AI Math
Twitter
ACX 2024
One Piece
Music AI Race
Hard Forkasts 2024
AI 2025
2028 Election
Joshua
Manifold Politics
Premium
Who will be the two major party nominees of the 2028 United States Presidential Election? (resolves 50% each)
30%
Other
Yes
No
23%
JD Vance (Vice President)
Yes
No
13%
Gavin Newsom (California Governor)
Yes
No
5%
Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania Governor)
Yes
No
See 18 more answers
161
Ṁ22k
PREDYX
Premium
2028 US Presidential Election winner?
25%
JD Vance
Yes
No
20%
Other
Yes
No
17%
Gavin Newsom
Yes
No
4%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Yes
No
See 38 more answers
724
Ṁ160k
Dylan Slagh
Plus
Who will win the 2028 United States presidential election?
25%
JD Vance
Yes
No
23%
Other
Yes
No
17%
Gavin Newsom
Yes
No
6%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Yes
No
See 57 more answers
460
Ṁ20k
Dylan Slagh
Plus
Who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2028?
25%
Gavin Newsom
Yes
No
22%
Other
Yes
No
11%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Yes
No
7%
Josh Shapiro
Yes
No
See 77 more answers
1639
Ṁ29k
Dylan Slagh
Plus
Who will be the Republican nominee for president in 2028?
55%
JD Vance
Yes
No
14%
Other
Yes
No
8%
Donald Trump Jr
Yes
No
7%
Marco Rubio
Yes
No
See 33 more answers
623
Ṁ20k
PREDYX
Premium
2028 Democratic nominee?
30%
Other
Yes
No
28%
Gavin Newsom
Yes
No
10%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Yes
No
7%
Josh Shapiro
Yes
No
See 9 more answers
171
Ṁ23k
PREDYX
Premium
2028 Republican nominee?
50%
JD Vance
Yes
No
19%
Other
Yes
No
7%
Donald Trump Jr
Yes
No
6%
Marco Rubio
Yes
No
See 8 more answers
285
Ṁ42k
skibidist
Mini
2028 Democratic candidate is "Trump of the Dems"?
16%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
54
Ṁ273
Scott Alexander
Plus
In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?
71%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
2422
Ṁ5.5k
Browse
Politics
News
About
Sign in