OpenAI

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When will OpenAI release o3-mini to ChatGPT Plus subscribers?

Resolved

YES

Before February 2025

Resolved

YES

Before March 2025

Resolved

YES

Before April 2025

Resolved

YES

Before June 2025

Plus

When will OpenAI's o3 model release to ChatGPT Pro users?

Resolved

NO

before February 2025

Resolved

NO

before April 2025

Resolved

YES

before June 2025

Resolved

YES

before August 2025

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By when will OpenAI broadly release the model expected to be called GPT-5?

40%

Before August 2025

69%

Before September 2025

79%

Before October 2025

87%

Before November 2025

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Will anyone manage to get OpenAI Sora to generate explicitly pornographic videos in the three months after release?NO

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AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]2,033

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Will OpenAI pay scientific publishers for content by EOY 2025?23% chance

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What will be true of OpenAI's Sora* model, at the end of 2025? [*see description]

28%

It will be the SOTA for text to video

35%

It can generate videos over 10 minutes long

71%

A second major version of the model has been released

8%

A third major version of the model has been released

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Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?23% chance

Sama says "build for GPT-5 and AGI Now; GPT-5 in 2024, AGI in 2025" | Hacker News

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Will OpenAI hint at [read description] or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?19% chance

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