MANIFOLD
Home
US Politics
News
About
App
Sign in
Dark
Light
(auto)
OpenAI
Deepseek
Israel Ceasefire
TikTok Ban
LA Fire
Oscars 2025
H5N1
Trump
Cabinet
Nintendo Switch 2
Trudeau Resigns
Hard Forkcasts 2025
Korea
Biden
House Speaker
Sora
Bitcoin
2028 Election
AGI Timelines
Taylor Swift
Elon/Tesla
Sama Drama
AI Math
Twitter
ACX 2024
One Piece
Music AI Race
Hard Forkasts 2024
AI 2025
AI 2025
Bayesian
What will happen in AI in 2025?
Austin
Crystal
Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?
49%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
2932
แน100k
Manifold
Premium
What will be the best performance on FrontierMath by December 31st 2025?
19%
0% - 35%
Yes
No
11%
35 - 40%
Yes
No
11%
40 - 45%
Yes
No
12%
45 - 50%
Yes
No
See 2 more answers
86
แน10k
Bayesian
Premium
What will be the best AI performance on Humanity's Last Exam by December 31st 2025?
0.8%
0-10%
Yes
No
3%
10-20%
Yes
No
7%
20-30%
Yes
No
15%
30-40%
Yes
No
See 6 more answers
70
แน15k
Bayesian
Plus
Top score on codeforces by an AI model at the end of 2025
1.6%
<2750 (OpenAI's o3 at 2727)
Yes
No
9%
2750-3000
Yes
No
14%
3000-3250
Yes
No
17%
3250-3500
Yes
No
See 3 more answers
48
แน1k
See more questions:
Browse
Politics
News
About
Sign in