Israel

Plus

When will the hostilities in Gaza end?

3%

Jan 2025 or earlier

7%

Feb 2025 or earlier

11%

Mar 2025 or earlier

17%

April 2025 or earlier

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What Event Will Happen First: Israel/Hamas Ceasefire, Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire, Trump Re-Elected, Harris Elected

98%

Trump Re-elected

1.2%

Israel/Hamas Ceasefire

0.6%

Harris Elected

0.3%

Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire

Plus

When will Gaza have a ceasefire? (before end of which month?) [Israel Hamas Conflict]

0.2%

Before the end of Dec 2024

76%

Before the end of Jun 2025

91%

Before the end of Dec 2025

90%

Before the end of Jun 2026

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Plus

Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends?36% chance

Plus

Will Israel win the 2023 Israel–Hamas war?72% chance

Plus

[Metaculus] Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?13% chance

Plus

Will the International Court of Justice (ICJ) determine that Israel committed genocide in Gaza?20% chance

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