AGI Timelines

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Will we reach "weak AGI" by the end of 2025?6% chance

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AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]2,035

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Will the ARC-AGI grand prize (v1, 2024 dataset) be claimed by end of 2025?12% chance

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Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?52% chance

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Will a high-volume prediction market expect OpenAI to create AGI before 2030?YES

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Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030?38% chance

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Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2040?65% chance

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Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2100?89% chance

Dear Elon Musk, here are five things you might want to consider about AGI

Should we really expect artificial general intelligence in 2029?

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Will at least 3 of the Gary Marcus benchmark questions resolve YES?89% chance

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By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)87% chance

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By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)90% chance

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In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)60% chance

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In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)81% chance

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In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)82% chance

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Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?32% chance

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What organization will be the first to create AGI?

32%

DeepMind

25%

OpenAI

16%

Other

10%

Anthropic

See 8 more answers